Yes, while it's purely speculation, I'll venture a guess of 3-6 months. Another 3-6 for alpha, and 3-6 for beta. So, at least another 1.5 years before this game sees release. Sort of depressing. I'm stuck playing mmos I have no real interest in for something to do in my spare time.
Here is my view point, pre-alpha isn't going to be that long 1-2 months perhaps. Its just meant to get the client and basic features tested and ready for Alpha and alot more testers in the world.
Basic stuff like logging in, zoning, movement, interacting with a basic world, basic combat and player interaction. Also Unity world features like the graphic systems, like grass, water, player model movements etc at a basic level. They don't even have doors working yet so that all needs to be tested before you start adding in classes and advanced features which requires more people hence Alpha. You want people to be able to log in and move about without crashing so actual MMO features can be tested. Basically test the world foundation. If they have that already done then they are further along and thats good news.
Alpha will be the real meat of testing and the longest. Testing races, classes, core tenents, combat, mob AI, weather systems, progency, perception system, death, trading, tradeskills etc and seeing how all that works together. You don't really need a large built world for that. Beta will be for balancing, fine tuning, stress testing and have most of the world built but the core systems will have been tested in Alpha.
Once the core systems are built and tested then implementing those will be faster for building out the world with NPCs and other zones. After Alpha the world will be able to be built out faster so an Q2-3 2019 release is what I guess.
But this is a guess and I could be way off.
I suspect that things are going to go quicker than alot of people here seem to think that they are. They've said that they have built the tools to make development go at a fairly expiditions pace, one example of them saying that can be foind in the 'Technological Preview' video. They also said, in the same video, that multiple teams are working in parallel.
Something important to note is that the longer it takes to test and fix problems, the longer that they are pouring money down a hole. That's not to say that they will take shortcuts to get the game released. It's just to say that the various investors will not wait forever.
Edited to add: They have already been in development with ths "revised" version of Pantheon since at least some time in 2015, which is also something important to note.
Pre-alpha 8 months. Alpha 6 months. Beta 4 months. My best guess for an exact release date... July 2019 at the earliest. But I think that is wishful thinking. It may be closer to June or July 2020 with a much longer pre-alpha phase.
Kaen said:Pre-alpha 8 months. Alpha 6 months. Beta 4 months. My best guess for an exact release date... July 2019 at the earliest. But I think that is wishful thinking. It may be closer to June or July 2020 with a much longer pre-alpha phase.
https://www.pantheonmmo.com/content/forums/topic/6904/pre-alpha-alpha-period/view/post_id/128266
I'll reference 1ad7 here, I base my estimates off most of what Kilsin has said and my own professional software experience.
Zeem said:Here is my view point, pre-alpha isn't going to be that long 1-2 months perhaps. Its just meant to get the client and basic features tested and ready for Alpha and alot more testers in the world.
Basic stuff like logging in, zoning, movement, interacting with a basic world, basic combat and player interaction. Also Unity world features like the graphic systems, like grass, water, player model movements etc at a basic level. They don't even have doors working yet so that all needs to be tested before you start adding in classes and advanced features which requires more people hence Alpha. You want people to be able to log in and move about without crashing so actual MMO features can be tested. Basically test the world foundation. If they have that already done then they are further along and thats good news.
Alpha will be the real meat of testing and the longest. Testing races, classes, core tenents, combat, mob AI, weather systems, progency, perception system, death, trading, tradeskills etc and seeing how all that works together. You don't really need a large built world for that. Beta will be for balancing, fine tuning, stress testing and have most of the world built but the core systems will have been tested in Alpha.
Once the core systems are built and tested then implementing those will be faster for building out the world with NPCs and other zones. After Alpha the world will be able to be built out faster so an Q2-3 2019 release is what I guess.
But this is a guess and I could be way off.
Totally agree with you .... I do think release might be sooner though ( perhaps wishful thinking ) .
Shea said:Zeem said:Here is my view point, pre-alpha isn't going to be that long 1-2 months perhaps. Its just meant to get the client and basic features tested and ready for Alpha and alot more testers in the world.
Basic stuff like logging in, zoning, movement, interacting with a basic world, basic combat and player interaction. Also Unity world features like the graphic systems, like grass, water, player model movements etc at a basic level. They don't even have doors working yet so that all needs to be tested before you start adding in classes and advanced features which requires more people hence Alpha. You want people to be able to log in and move about without crashing so actual MMO features can be tested. Basically test the world foundation. If they have that already done then they are further along and thats good news.
Alpha will be the real meat of testing and the longest. Testing races, classes, core tenents, combat, mob AI, weather systems, progency, perception system, death, trading, tradeskills etc and seeing how all that works together. You don't really need a large built world for that. Beta will be for balancing, fine tuning, stress testing and have most of the world built but the core systems will have been tested in Alpha.
Once the core systems are built and tested then implementing those will be faster for building out the world with NPCs and other zones. After Alpha the world will be able to be built out faster so an Q2-3 2019 release is what I guess.
But this is a guess and I could be way off.
Totally agree with you .... I do think release might be sooner though ( perhaps wishful thinking ) .
Thanks
Yeah it could be Q1-2 2019 but ya know leg room and all but 2019 is reasonable but it could be Q4 2018, "just in time for the holidays" launch as well. :)
It's a brave new world in gaming.
We see games come out in Early Access and remain in EA for years and years. Adding content, releasing DLCs, all while staying in EA.
It is not unrealistic for Pantheon to stay in some form of alpha/beta for years, as long as the numbers work out and they can keep the lights on.
Staying in a "non-release" mode has it's advantages. The longer that can last, while still bringing in revenue, the less of a reason to actually go "full release"
Frankly I do not see any reason for them to ever step out of a developing/beta/EA status.
Honestly Zewtastic , I have played alpha games for many years .. In Fact I'm still playing/testing a alpha game that has been in alpha for way beyound just 3 years . still a good game but can assure you they are not bringing in any new revenue :) wait to long the money no longer comes in . wait to little you get no more incomming . Its a balance ..
zewtastic said:It's a brave new world in gaming.
We see games come out in Early Access and remain in EA for years and years. Adding content, releasing DLCs, all while staying in EA.
It is not unrealistic for Pantheon to stay in some form of alpha/beta for years, as long as the numbers work out and they can keep the lights on.
Staying in a "non-release" mode has it's advantages. The longer that can last, while still bringing in revenue, the less of a reason to actually go "full release"
Frankly I do not see any reason for them to ever step out of a developing/beta/EA status.
I not see you post in a while, mabe I just missed it, good to see ya back if you were away.
Whats funny is at work I release a project, and I say its in open beta, just so I keep it on a dev machine where I can control it vs having to go thru several layers of idiots to get it to production server, which is the same as dev server and same security layer applied. Life is good.
zewtastic said:It's a brave new world in gaming.
We see games come out in Early Access and remain in EA for years and years. Adding content, releasing DLCs, all while staying in EA.
It is not unrealistic for Pantheon to stay in some form of alpha/beta for years, as long as the numbers work out and they can keep the lights on.
Staying in a "non-release" mode has it's advantages. The longer that can last, while still bringing in revenue, the less of a reason to actually go "full release"
Frankly I do not see any reason for them to ever step out of a developing/beta/EA status.
They will not bee in "not-release mode" and hve paying customers. That's not the way that Brad works. He's already said that it won't be available release until it is ready.
Edited to add: They have also said that pre-alpha, alpha, and beta access will be for testing only, NOT for general playing.
Kalok said:zewtastic said:It's a brave new world in gaming.
We see games come out in Early Access and remain in EA for years and years. Adding content, releasing DLCs, all while staying in EA.
It is not unrealistic for Pantheon to stay in some form of alpha/beta for years, as long as the numbers work out and they can keep the lights on.
Staying in a "non-release" mode has it's advantages. The longer that can last, while still bringing in revenue, the less of a reason to actually go "full release"
Frankly I do not see any reason for them to ever step out of a developing/beta/EA status.
They will not bee in "not-release mode" and hve paying customers. That's not the way that Brad works. He's already said that it won't be available release until it is ready.
Edited to add: They have also said that pre-alpha, alpha, and beta access will be for testing only, NOT for general playing.
I think he was talking about something else.
Considering that this is not the first mmo for some of the devs, I have high hopes. That being said, pre-alpha could see the implementation of very big features, and if the implementation doesn't work right away, there could potentially be a lot of work involved.
I just hope we'll be allowed to follow their checklist during the pre-alpha to see how the progress is going.
I think Everquest spent about 6 months in pre-alpha. (You can find pre-alpha footage from november 1997 and pre-beta footage from april 1998)
Zeem said:I not see you post in a while, mabe I just missed it, good to see ya back if you were away.
Whats funny is at work I release a project, and I say its in open beta, just so I keep it on a dev machine where I can control it vs having to go thru several layers of idiots to get it to production server, which is the same as dev server and same security layer applied. Life is good.
As a datacenter and services deployment architect, to me "you're that guy". :)
I totally get where you're coming from and I completely understand why you feel the way you do. From the other side of the fence though is the standardizing, economy of scale, stability and consistency of service. All of which are reduced, sometimes drastically, by an ever-changing dev/prod hybrid. Which applies equally to games.
Feyshtey said:Zeem said:I not see you post in a while, mabe I just missed it, good to see ya back if you were away.
Whats funny is at work I release a project, and I say its in open beta, just so I keep it on a dev machine where I can control it vs having to go thru several layers of idiots to get it to production server, which is the same as dev server and same security layer applied. Life is good.
As a datacenter and services deployment architect, to me "you're that guy". :)
I totally get where you're coming from and I completely understand why you feel the way you do. From the other side of the fence though is the standardizing, economy of scale, stability and consistency of service. All of which are reduced, sometimes drastically, by an ever-changing dev/prod hybrid. Which applies equally to games.
Also s a long-term IT guy....hehehe One of the plus sides, for their dev cycle, they are going to use "teh cloudz" for their infrastructure, which allows them to concentrate, and focus their cash, on actual development. Anyone in "the biz" knows that "teh cloudz" really just means "someone else's computers", but in this case, that's a good thing for their deveopment budget.
They produce content at a snail's pace. Unity makes things at least possible for a team and budget of this size, but still, it's coming at a snail's pace. I see massive problems with them having the resources to address the bugs found in pre-alpha while still progressing the 95% of the game still outstanding. I'm very surprised they even started Pre-Alpha at this point, but I guess their hand was forced to some degree due to previous promises. And, to be honest, with the way they talk in their videos and the attention to detail, I'm worried this is Vanguard all over again where they just spend too much time and effort on certain areas and never get around to others due to future financial restraints and time.
At the current pace, I think general development is years away, I'd guess at least five years, maybe more. My expectation is that they'll end up releasing half the game around 2020, pretty much the continent and races they are working on now, along with crafting and harvesting. Not a lot was accomplished this year in comparison to a AAA title and a massive team, and those games take many years to test. I expect Pre-Alpha testing to go at least a year, possibly two. They don't need the numbers for Alpha until they have more than 5% of the game completed and they can keep up with the fixes demanded by the Pre-Alpha testers. Really, these guys need about 50 million dollars and to triple their team. I wish I could give it to them. In the end, no one is going to care that they busted their hump and were passionate about the project, it's whether this game can live up to the shadow of EQ1 and the lost promise of VG. A small team with a limited budget doesn't seem like good odds. Anyway, Pre-Alpha will last a year at least. I kind of expect the pre-alpha testers to get bored because I don't think there is enough content even for that small number to test, maybe if they go MIA, the Alpha testers get in a little sooner. Happened with Crowfall. I think Alpha testers likely get in at some point in 2019, and I think half the game will release late in 2020, with the other half either never releasing or if revenue is solid, probably in the 2022 range. I've seen nothing that suggests they can develop this game fast enough to beat those guesstimates barring a massive financial investment (25-50 Million?) and quadrupling the team. I know EQ1 was made on a shoe string budget, and even VG was cheap by today's standards, but I'm not sure a modern MMO can pull that off simply because content is king and content is very expensive.
Mathir said:They produce content at a snail's pace.....At the current pace, I think general development is years away, I'd guess at least five years, maybe more....
...these guys need about 50 million dollars and to triple their team....
...I know EQ1 was made on a shoe string budget, and even VG was cheap by today's standards, but I'm not sure a modern MMO can pull that off simply because content is king and content is very expensive.
But what you are not considering is CONTEXT.
Back then, EQ1 was light years ahead of development technology. It was an insane amount of development given the tools available. Yes content and aesthetics today look daunting and 1000 times more challenging, but today's tools are 1000 times more powerful and capable.
Mathir wins the award for most pessimistic post I've seen in a *long* time.
Note that this doesn't mean it is *wrong* but I think if the internal timeline at VR was that half the game would be released in three years they would write it off as a lost cause and all find something else to do.
I'm not going to try to predict the future dates of testing phases, but what I will predict is that this game being in Beta for too long could negatively impact the game's longevity. I say this because there are constantly new games available to players and people looking for a new game will either play what their friends are playing or do a google search for "xyz MMO gameplay video". People don't do searches for "games in Beta" but beta videos certainly come up in the gameplay video search. When games are in Beta there is always gameplay video content, but in a game like this it would likely be an absolute misrepresentation of what the game is about... potentionally even videos posted by competing games/devs showing content to purposely dissuade new players by doing something silly like exploiting some bug, or going on an hour long CR and repeatedly dying even though the game isn't even completed and could possibly be entirely different upon release (if Beta is excessively long). MMO Beta phase should primarily be for stress testing and taking into consideration load balancing for release (saturation of new player areas and login servers).
Systems/application software testing phases typically last as long as they need because you want representation of how the product will perform when in production, but that kind of software typically has a specific purpose and although the technology can be stolen/duplicated and possibly marketed before the original developers can go live, the ability to sabotage it isn't as simple as posting YouTube videos of bugs because of the target audience (You can see this strategy a lot in the "comments" in new products/vendors on Amazon). In a world where people are looking to make a quick buck (MMOs have become one of the quick money makers for companies), there are non-gaming businesses going the MMO route that will take business-like measures against competitors. At least in the pre-alpha and alpha test phases you know we are mostly EQ and/or VG fans and want the game to succeed. Have the pre-alpha and alpha take as long as they need; This is where the core testing should be done, not in the production environment (in my opinion).
I only made this rant because of my concern after seeing some people posting dates of year+ long Betas. I would be interested in knowing how those games did. i.e. if they had unwaranted negative PR before going live or if there were competing games in the market during the same time.